For ten months now, Russia has been conducting a special military operation in Ukraine. At the beginning, the Russian political and military leadership relied on the «blitzkrieg». However, due to a number of military and political miscalculations, stubbornness and, it must be admitted, military successes on the part of Ukraine, the potential of the Russian offensive has dried up, and the war has acquired a positional character.
And the special military operation, like a capricious child, demands more and more attention to itself: both financial means and various resources, including human ones. And victims… Human. And not the little ones! According to official statements from the Ukrainian side, losses among Russian military servicemen amount to about 100,000. It is obvious that the Russian leadership did not have such plans.
Unresolved political problems, as well as significant losses of personnel actively contributed to the mobilization in Russia. According to some sources, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation should reach three million. One of the arguments used is that the military confrontation in Ukraine is being waged with NATO forces.
However, during the mobilization activities, a number of problems arose, which were caused by the growing dissatisfaction of the population of Russia, the shortage of workers at enterprises, the low level of support for military personnel, in particular financial, as well as various actions of the leadership of the Russian Federation aimed at non-payment of appropriate financial funds to the relatives of dead and maimed military personnel.
It was these emerging problems that contributed to the fact that the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to take active measures to recruit mercenary soldiers through private military companies, primarily «Wagner». The main recruiting regions, of course, were states with a low standard of living, economic and social instability. First of all, these include the countries of Central Africa and the Middle East. However, in recent times PMC emissaries are more and more actively directing their actions towards citizens of Central Asian countries. It is worth noting that this contingent is quite widely represented in the Russian Federation as guest workers. Obviously, the main argument for the recruitment contingent of these countries is financial. It is understandable — for the population with low levels of income, which is practically on the verge of survival, the prospect of earning is a good reason to conclude a contract. And this perspective clouds the mind, not to mention the conscience, but in general – common sense.
It is important to note that Russia itself approached the issue of «recruitment» in a unique, even «creative» way. PMC emissaries became more active in prisons. Everyone knows what kind of contingent is there. And it is also known what kind of relations reign there. It is not difficult to assume that the «resident» in the event of signing a contract with the PMC will come to military service with all this rich baggage. And there are already more than 25,000 of them!
According to sources from the same «Wagner», the training period of a PMC fighter is about two weeks. Looking at this entire «collective mess» and applying all the described problems, one begins to doubt that the average PMC fighter is a trained combat unit as part of a well-coordinated unit. Obviously, there is no need to talk about professionalism here. The conclusion is simple: these are soldiers of «one battle».
It is also doubtful that the PMC recruiters will be able to recruit at least an approximately sufficient number of the relevant contingent capable of covering the available combat losses. Even if the appropriate number of such «soldiers of fortune» is selected, and they still fall on the line of collision, then, undoubtedly, they will face the same problems that are now inherent in the Russian army. This is the lack of proper provision in all its forms, and the terrible conditions of stay in the places of deployment, and the specifics of the Ukrainian climate… The communication barrier will definitely make its negative contribution. And one can safely assume that a number of problems will arise on ethnic and national grounds in relations directly with the military personnel of the Russian Federation. We should not forget about the specific contingent from prisons, bearing the stamp of subjects of this «subculture» with its relations and hierarchy.
As for the «remuneration» of these soldiers, as the available experience shows, the management of «Wagner» and the Russian Federation always find arguments to either reduce the amount of monetary compensation, or not to pay it at all… So to speak, «the fighter disappeared under unclear circumstances» …
And there are more and more such circumstances in Ukraine, and they are becoming more and more large-scale… And the fact that not a few «adventure seekers» and «guest workers from the war» have become motley fertilizer for the earth is indisputable. And for those still alive, the prospect of catching the «golden calf» by the horns turns into a banal survival in the inhumane conditions of war, aggravated by violence and humiliation from «their» commanders and colleagues. Probably, it is possible to earn money for the war… But what kind? And how long? And will they be able to at least somehow reduce the problems for the solution of which, in fact, the contract was concluded?
In conclusion, I would like to analyze the events that are quite accurately predicted with the end of the service of such «wild geese» and their return to their native penats.
Obviously, not many will return home. And yet… A person who survived active combat, clearly under the influence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and possibly even with a «trophied» weapon, at home will be a source of increased danger for society, and for the authorities — an increased attention If the country, the family of such a hero, is not distinguished by high indicators of economic and social stability, then the acuteness of the situation will grow. Ч A person, a member of society, who has not found an application for himself in peaceful life, but has combat experience, experience of survival, who is used to risking his life, and possibly the lives of his colleagues, will compensate for excess adrenaline in the blood by possible participation in various risky activities. Often illegal, joining criminal or terrorist groups. Of course, such activity represents a real threat to society, and possibly to the stability of the state.
The general result is quite simple — the Russian Federation indirectly contributes to the destabilization of the situation in the mercenary supplier countries.