Economic consequences of Russia’s aggression as of 20:00 March 4th, 2022

Russia’s economy will fall by 20% due to sanctions in the second quarter according to JPMorgan’s estimates. As well as Russia risks default on public debt. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported that they expect Russia’s GDP to decline by 7% in 2022, while Bloomberg Economics forecasts a decline of 9%.

— Rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded Russia’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings were both lowered to ‘CCC-‘, from ‘BB+’and ‘BBB-‘ respectively.

— International rating agency Moody’s downgraded Russia’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured (local-and foreign-currency) debt ratings to ‘B3’ from ‘Baa3’. Moody’s also reviewed Russia’s unsecured foreign and foreign currency rating ratings Baa3 and the short-term national currency rating P-3.

— The country’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was downgraded by Fitch to B from BBB.

— The London Stock Exchange has started to list shares of 27 issuers from its contacts with Russia, Morgan Stanley excluded them from the index of developing countries, as the country is now “not suitable for investment”. Among the companies that are excluded from trading on the stock exchange – En +, Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil and Polyus.

— The Dow Jones Russia GDR Index, which tracks London-traded Russian companies, has plunged 98% in two weeks. The slump has wiped out $572 billion from the market value of 23 stocks, including Gazprom PJSC, Sberbank of Russia PJSC and Rosneft PJSC.

— On March 2nd the price of Russian Sberbank stocks on the London Stock Exchange fell to 1 cent. Sberbank has announced its withdrawal from the European market. ECB assesses that Sberbank Europe AG and its subsidiaries in Croatia and Slovenia are failing or likely to fail.

— Since 25.02.2022 trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange in the stock market is not held.

— The American stock exchanges NYSE and NASDAQ have suspended trading in shares of Russian companies MTS, Mechel, Tsian, HeadHunter, Yandex, Ozon.

— The capitalization of European business related to Russia has decreased by $ 100 billion since the beginning of invasion.

— Investment companies BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity International refused to investin Russian securities.

— EU, Switzerland and Japan ban certain Russian banks from SWIFT system (Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Rossiya Bank, Sovcombank, VNESHECONOMBANK (VEB), and VTB BANK) and introduces further restrictions. This will stop the work of such banks around the world and effectively block Russian exports and imports.

— U.S. payment card firms Visa Inc and Mastercard Inc have blocked multiple Russian financial institutions from their network. British fintech service forcross-border payments Wise has announced the suspension of remittances in Russia. Payment systems Google Pay, Samsung Pay, PayPal and Paysera have stopped working in Russia.

— The ruble has become the most volatile currency in the world. On March 4th, 2022, the Russian ruble fell to its absolute historical minimum, crossing the mark of 111 rubles per dollar and 124 rubles per euro. 28th February, Tinkoff bank offers to buy currency at an astronomical rate: up to 200 for a dollar. At the same time, the situation with the exchange rate continues to deteriorate.

— Russia’s central bank has raised its key interest rate to 20 per cent from 9.5 percent.

— Canada has imposed 35% tariffs on all goods from Russia and Belarus.

— 38 countries have already closed their skies to Russia (USA, Great Britain, Canada, Albania, Iceland, Norway, Moldova, Northern Macedonia, Switzerland, Montenegro and all EU countries). Russian airlines have already begun to massively cancel scheduled flights to Europe and began to evacuate its citizens. The losses are to be estimated.

— British Petroleum is to offload its 19.75% stake in Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft. Norwegian energy company Equinor (formerly Statoil) also announced its decision to withdraw from the Russian market. The British oil and gas company Shell has decided to withdraw from all joint ventures established with Gazprom and related organizations. Exxon Mobil exits Russia oil and gas operations and haltnew investment. TotalEnergies will no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia.

— Rosatom’s application to participate in German nuclear fuel plant in Lower Saxony withdrawn.

— Boeing, Airbus, Embraer and CFM International have suspended support services for Russian airlines and the supply of spare parts and components for aircraft to Russia.

— Volvo and BMW stop producing and selling cars in Russia. Ford, Honda and Mazda halt the export of cars, motorcycles and spare parts. Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Skoda, Citroen and General Motors have also suspended car sales in Russia.

— Apple stops selling its goods through Russian online store. Gadget manufacturer Dell Technologies Inc, HP and Lenovo have stopped selling in Russia.

— Microsoft suspends sales of products and services in Russia.

— Google suspend all advertising sales in Russia.

— Panasonic Group, SIEMENS Energy, Nokia, Ericsson have announced the suspension of operations with Russia.

— TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor maker, stops supplying chips to Russia.The world’s largest manufacturers of processors Intel, AMD and Autodesk have stopped supplying their products to Russia, as well as EPAM Systems do. Tech giants Oracle and SAP has announced the suspension of all operations in Russia. American IT company Netscout leaves Russia: the company stops selling and supporting its products, as well as — Arbor services, solutions to protect against DDoS attacks

— Logistics companies such as Denmark’s Maersk, Singapore’s Ocean Network Express, Germany’s Hapag Lloyd and Switzerland’s MSC have suspended work with all Russian ports.

— China’s two largest state-owned banks have restricted deals to buy Russian raw materials — Bank of China and ICBC.

— Germany’s Daimler Truck, the world’s largest truck manufacturer, has announced the cessation of all cooperation with Russia’s largest heavy truck manufacturer Kamaz.

— The decision to terminate business operations in Russia was announced by courier services UPS, FedEx, DHL.

— Nike sportswear company has shut down an online store in Russia, and Adidas AG has announced the suspension of cooperation with the Russian Football Union. H&M Group, Marks&Spencer, Hermes, Swarovski, ASOS stop all sales in Russia.

— Furniture stores IKEA and Jysk suspend operations in Russia.

— Diageo (produced by Johnnie Walker, Captain Morgan, Guinness, Smirnoff, White Horse) and Carlsberghas suspended supplies to Russia.

— Danone have announced their withdrawal from the Russian market.

— Disney, Sony Pictures and Warner Bros. are suspending the rental of their films in Russia. Netflix refused to broadcast Russian channels and movies.

— Airbnb, Spotify, Amazon, Zoom, Cisco Systems also announced the cessation of all operations in Russia.