Putin is planning a long, protracted war, the geography of which will be determined by Russia’s military capabilities. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a shock for the Russian army, which lost its best resources — both human and armed — in the battles. But Putin did not leave the idea of capturing Ukraine — a key foreign policy goal for all 23 years of his actual rule. The Russian army is exhausted and weak, covert mobilization is being carried out across Russia, and Putin’s henchmen are traveling the world in the hope of agreeing on the supply of weapons. Insufficient military power is the only thing that stops Putin from another full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is why the Kremlin dictator so persistently repeats the thesis about his readiness for negotiations: that is vital for him to get a tactical pause and to accumulate the necessary military resources.
Russia actually loses a battalion every day near Bakhmut. The Russian army is suffering heavy losses: during the 300 days of the war, its losses only in killed exceeded 100,000 people — an unprecedented figure since 1945. Putin understands the tactical impasse of this situation and hopes for negotiations to make up for the depleted military resources. In the near future, a general mobilization will begin in Russia: there was a catastrophic lack of conscripts in the fall, the additional 150,000 military personnel did not affect the course of events in any way, except to stabilize the front line. Putin dreams of an offensive, and therefore the mobilization will continue in Russia.
The thesis about negotiations is a typical bluff of the Kremlin. Putin once again hopes to deceive the whole world and assures of his peaceful intentions. This is the main danger of dialogue with a dictator. The ongoing fighting is causing losses in the Armed Forces, but if Putin gathers his forces and launches a second offensive, the fake “truce” with the Kremlin will already in the short term bring incomparably greater losses to Ukraine.
Putin has not abandoned the idea of capturing Kyiv — in fact, this is his key goal, which has a symbolic meaning. Belarus is de facto annexed by Russia, and Lukashenko is no longer the commander of his army. And this Once again confirms the fact that under no circumstances should Russia be given a break, which it will use 100 % against Ukraine.
Putin has finally lost touch with reality and plans to fight against the entire civilized world. He is deliberately disinformed by his entourage about the catastrophic situation on the front lines in order to avoid punishment. This further complicates the already deadlocked situation in Russia: Putin will continue the war and the Russian economy and industry are already operating according to wartime norms. Russia should be exhausted comprehensively: with the help of sanctions, by weakening its military potential, promoting the departure of its citizens abroad. Russia must be weakened and decentralized — only in this way can humanity be freed from the threat of its expansion, which could turn into the third world war.
Ukraine needs support from the West more than ever. The Armed Forces protect not only their country, but also act as the “shield of Europe”. Russia will continue the war as long as it has the resources, and therefore all the necessary weapons for Ukraine is an investment in the peaceful future of Europe. The air defense is the key to the protection of Ukrainian cities from missile attacks and the survival of tens of thousands of civilians.