Surovikin’s appointment as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine coincided with increased political turbulence in Belarus, a series of anti-Ukrainian statements voiced by Aleksandr Lukashenko, and the creation of a Russian-Belarusian regional grouping of forces. Nowiny Polskie says that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus – this is an axiom: Lukashenko’s latest threats and massive missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure can be regarded as part of a broad information campaign designed to coerce Ukraine to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.
Such talks, however, would only win a tactical pause for Russia as the Kremlin seeks to take in order to establish control over Ukraine: this is Putin’s quirk, while he has less and less time left to implement his plans.
The unannounced mobilization in the Russian Federation and the return of Russian troops to Belarus are very reminiscent in their nature of the events of early 2022, when Russian military units and trainloads of armored vehicles were transferred toward the Ukrainian borders. But now Russia no longer has the required amount of weapons, while also running low on combat-ready units.
Through negotiations, Putin plans to win time and amass the required amount of heavy weaponry and at least somehow train a random pick of alcoholics and teachers hastily called up for military service. This is a typical tactical pause and at the same time a deceitful move to convince Ukraine and the West of Russia’s peaceful intentions.
In fact, Putin has decided to fight to the end: in a sense, he simply has no other choice, based on the current socio-political situation in Russia. Therefore, this war is likely to last «tilll the last Russian.»
Ukraine is now entering the most difficult stage since regaining independence and is in dire need of timely supplies of Western weapons because the Russian army can only be stopped if it is defeated on Ukraine’s battlefields.