Russia looses blitzkriegs, but wins the long-lasting wars at the cost of many victims
Putin plans a large-scale territorial expansion to the West, which has neither time nor geographical boundaries. There is a huge funding set in advance in the RF budget. In 2024, the RF’s army and defense-industrial complex expenditures will make up a third of all state spending. It is predicted that the funding of the Russian army will increase in 2025-2026, because Putin plans to complete the comprehensive modernization of the Russian Armed Forces by the end of 2026, and then the number of personnel in the Russian army will probably exceed 2 million people.These are a part of a large-scale reform in the Russian army, as a result of which its personnel has already been increase. Moreover, it is planned to create two military districts near Finland and the Baltic states by the end of 2026.This coincides with the forecasts of leading analytical centers, which consider 2027 as the approximate time of the start of the Russian Federation’s war against Europe. Before that, Russia will weaken Europe in every possible way in order to make it as vulnerable as possible to the imminent attack: flows of illegal migrants, radical right-wing movements that will shake European unity. Even possible conflicts in the Balkans and the Middle East will unceasingly weaken the supranational institutions of Europe and the civilized West. It is very dangerous to get involved in a protracted war with Russia. Historically, it, usually, looses blitzkriegs, but wins protracted wars often with new territories, using its resources, large territory and a lot of people dying on the battlefield for the ultimate goal. This demonstrates Putin’s tactics in Ukraine: he wants a protracted war and is ready to fight for years, waiting for Ukraine and the West to exhaust. In this case, the defeat of Ukraine will be a devastating blow to Western civilization, and Russia will receive a “green light” for division of the world in the future.
Russian aggression is a cyclical phenomenon that occurred at certain historical frame times. It can even be predicted mathematically: the idea of conquering the territories of countries adjacent to Russia was the main driver of the development of Russian statehood. With the help of the so-called “defensive” wars, Russia throughout its entire history expanded to 1/6 of the globe. Accordingly, the idea of territorial expansion is one of the main priorities for Putin: during his speeches and addresses, he constantly devalues and discriminates against the statehood of post-Soviet countries, appealing to the fact that they are artificial countries, parts of the former Russia.
On February 24, 2022, Russia opened a new page in recent history: Ukraine became the first country to face an attack of the Russian army. Putin hoped that Ukraine would fall in a few days, and the West would be afraid and refuse to support Ukraine. Having done something amazing, having an asymmetrically smaller number of weapons than the enemy, the Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed back the occupying Russian army from Kyiv and from other directions. However, Putin laid the first stone in the architecture of the future division of the world: flirting with the aggressor, who in 2008 annexed part of Georgia, and in 2014 — part of Ukraine, provoked the largest war of nowadays. It is taking place in Europe and is already threatening the territorial integrity of its other countries. After all, the territories from Finland in the north to Bulgaria in the south are geopolitical interests of the Kremlin, and the so-called “Russkiy mir” is the theoretical justification of Russian territorial expansion in the western direction.
A large-scale confrontation with the West (using a wide range of tools) may lead to the latter’s civilizational defeat and subsequent vassal dependence on the Russian-Chinese geopolitical dyadic. Putin sees this as a kind of the peak of his reign. And he is ready to fight for many years, because Russia still has sufficient mobilization potential and an inexhaustible resource, which is key to productivity of the Russian military industry There are even certain predictions regarding the beginning of Russia’s war with Europe. If Putin has a revenge in Ukraine, he will need about 5 years for accumulation of necessary military potential for the next stage of the war. However, if Russia is defeated on the Ukrainian front, Europe will not be threatened with war for at least 10 years.
Russia really suffered significant losses in the war with Ukraine, so it is not yet ready for a war on several fronts. However, the Russian economy has already been moved onto the war footing, the Russian military-industrial complex is heavily financed, and after the next re-election of Putin, large-scale mobilization will begin. All this is not only for the continuation of the war with Ukraine. The German Council on International Relations (DGAP) has released an analytical forecast that talks about Putin’s intentions to invade Europe. According to the authors of it, Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz, the West does not have much time to take the necessary steps to counter the Russian Federation. Currently, Russia is preparing for the future war with Europe in various directions: it is actively arming itself, increasing the production of weapons and importing them, scaling up the hybrid threat to Europe to weaken it from within. A classic example is a crowd of migrants from the Middle East on the Russian-Finnish border that remains the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border in the fall of 2021. At that time, Russia used special flights to transport refugees from Syria and Iraq to Belarus, who then stormed the Polish border. And finally, Putin is trying to create a coalition of the countries of the “Global South” that will support Russia in its confrontation with the West. Putin, somewhat, has already succeeded: Iran and North Korea are supplying weapons to the Russian army and no one can stop this process. The vast majority of countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia consider the biggest war of modern times to be an exclusively Ukrainian-Russian internal issue.
Putin supports the geopolitical concept of Eurasia (Eurasianism), which is based on Moscow’s control of a vast territory from Lisbon to Kamchatka. In fact, Russia has successfully tested the tactics of “defensive expansion”: manifesting an imaginary threat to Russia and Russians, the Kremlin launches a military invasion, and declares the occupied territories of a sovereign state (which in no way threatened Russia) “liberated”, “demilitarized”, “security zone”. Needless to say, their inclusion in the Russian Federation is only a matter of time. Russia expanded in this way historically. This is what the Russians did in Ukraine in September 2022 at TOT, by holding illegal elections. This is a universal template for territorial expansion into Europe, which Putin openly calls a source of threats to the Russian Federation.
The West must wake up from geopolitical lethargy and realize that long-term stability in Europe depends solely on timely support for Ukraine. Weapon is of key importance: long-range missiles, artillery shells and various types of attack and reconnaissance drones are the best investment not only in the Armed Forces and its combat capability, but also in peace in Europe. Europe should begin to rearm, as if war with Russia would break out in a year. If Putin sees decisive action, he will abandon the invasion. On the other hand, the war will not stop until Ukraine is reliably protected and receives the necessary security guarantees. Even when Putin dies, his successor will come to Ukraine with war — this is a historical pattern that Moscow has constantly practiced at various historical stages. Thus, the incorporation of Ukraine into the West’s supranational institutions will create a geopolitical shield on its eastern borders and is the only option to end the war in Europe. Also, Ukraine must receive the necessary financing in order to support its economy and restore industry. On the territory of Ukraine, military-industrial complex facilities should be created, which will produce modern Western weapons — the key to strengthening the Armed Forces and NATO armies. The Ukrainian military must receive the highest quality training in accordance with NATO standards. In general, these measures should cause Putin quick and unacceptable losses. This is the only way to localize his expansion and prevent the Third World War.
Volodymyr ROSTOTSKY, Russian political scientist