Russia suffered significant losses during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The best reserves of its army were destroyed as early as 2022, and the partial mobilization, which is still ongoing, did not help. Russia is physically unable to effectively train many unmotivated conscripts. Corruption and bureaucracy are traditional phenomena for Russia, significantly slowing down mobilization. The archaic Russian army, which has not rid itself of Soviet ballast (even taking into account its numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine), is forced to slowly retreat from the occupied territories of Ukraine. Under these conditions, Russia once again uses bluff and blackmail: convincing the whole world of its peaceful intentions and offering negotiations, Putin wants to buy time to prepare for a new stage of the war.
On August 17, A. Lukashenko once again stated the need for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, stressing that Russia has already apparently “achieved the goals of the SMO.” The president of Belarus did not explain what exactly these goals are. It is worth noting that Lukashenko’s words ae nothing at a political level, as Russia’s proxy, he voices the Kremlin’s instructions. Lukashenko regularly makes these statements: he voiced theses regarding the need for a ceasefire in June and July — twice during the summer of this year. Despite the statement about the reorientation of the industry and economy of the Russian Federation to military needs, the situation in the Russian army is gradually but steadily deteriorating, it was forced to retreat from many areas of the front, as well as to attract additional reserves in order to restrain the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The loss of Urozhaine and Robotyne in the Donetsk Oblast, liberated on August 16 and 22, respectively, threatens to weaken the Russian defense in the occupied territories of this Oblast. Russians have built powerful fortifications only in the territory of the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, partially in the Kherson Oblast. Russia needs a tactical pause in order to accumulate military resources. This explains the stubborn plea for negotiations voiced by the Kremlin’s puppets.
No negotiations with the Russian Federation, the benchmark of a terrorist state, make sense: Putin is not ready for peace. All the processes in the Russian Federation testify to only one thing: the Kremlin wants to continue this war. The only thing that prevents him is the lack of the necessary resources: trained soldiers and the necessary weapons. Therefore, any freezing of the war is a voluntary consent to resume it already in the medium term. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will carefully analyze its own mistakes and will try not to repeat them during the attempt of a repeated full-scale offensive. Under such circumstances, the cessation of hostilities on Putin’s terms is a disastrous step that will bring war to Europe. Ukraine must get all the necessary weapons in order to defeat Russia and liberate the occupied territories. Putin must suffer a crushing defeat in order to never again start a war of aggression against Ukraine.