Against the background of the creation of a joint Russian-Belarusian group of troops, Russia began to actively transfer military contingent and heavy armored vehicles to Belarus: it was announced about the transfer of about 9 thousand personnel and 170 tanks.
Russia is radically changing its military style: instead of attacking at the front, it launches massive missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and residential buildings under the pretext of “fighting terrorism.” Russian propaganda purposefully replicates the theses that Ukraine is a “terrorist state”: this is done in order to divert the attention of the international community from the war crimes of Russia, which is fighting with terrorist methods.
Another reason is that Putin seeks to remove all restrictions in the war with Ukraine and use scorched earth tactics, just as he did during the second Chechen war. Lukashenkо also accuses Ukraine of preparing an attack on Belarus, as well as preparing terrorists who will then operate on the territory of the republic. It is clear that such behavior of the Belarusian leadership suggests that it will remain loyal to the RF’s criminal regime and may decide to invade Ukraine.
The Minister of Defense of Belarus stated that “the turning point in the war will come during November-February.” It is during this time that Russia will achieve certain results: hundreds of thousands of Russians will be mobilized into the army and a certain amount of military equipment will be accumulated.
Under such conditions, the threat to Kyiv isn’t an illusion: for Putin, this city will always have a symbolic meaning, and without it, he “will not close the gestalt.” Therefore, Ukraine should prepare for any development of events and strengthen the northern borders seriously in order to prevent a major war in Europe.