Everything depends on the security. Security guarantees are the basis for the economic development of the state, the guarantee of investors’ confidence in the efficiency of investment. Ukraine’s accession to NATO will be the impetus for the Ukrainian economic miracle, and at the same time, for the recovery of the economy of the entire Eastern European region.
Ukraine has a huge potential to be one of the top European economies. There is everything for success, including logistics, resources, and the most importantly, human potential. The main obstacle to this at the moment is Russian aggression. Russia, realizing the impossibility of capturing the whole country, damages the Ukrainian economy as much as possible, trying to “hobble” and deprive the country of opportunities for development. This is deliberate acts of the Kremlin, with an eye to the European economy as well.
The only effective deterrent against further Russian attacks will be Ukraine’s Atlantic integration. None of the previous formats of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO did not stop Russian aggression. Membership of Ukraine and the North Atlantic Alliance, and consequently, Article 5 of the NATO Treaty will become a sticking point for aggressive but cowardly Russia, which has no chance against the unification of the strongest armies in Europe.
After the end of the war, Ukraine will begin the restoration of its infrastructure. The new Marshall Plan presented in Lugano and London is impossible without solid security guarantees for Ukraine, because the post-war, humiliated and revenge-seeking Russia will also remain a source of threat. Ukraine should receive security guarantees in advance, before the end of the war — which will allow to immediately move towards recovery.
After the restoration of the infrastructure, Ukraine will become not only one of the largest business hubs in Europe, but also a reliable supplier of energy resources. The energy system of Ukraine largely depends on nuclear energy, which is considered carbon-neutral and highly efficient. After the de-occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine will be able to import “green” electricity to neighboring countries. For the same reason, Ukraine is an excellent place for opening industries that consume large amounts of electricity. For example, international concerns that have left the Russian market can restore production in Ukraine.
Other industries are also very promising for investment. The leading ones are the agricultural sector, metallurgy, and the IT industry. However, there are plenty of investment opportunities in Ukraine, but they are not reliable until Ukraine is protected from Russian aggression.
The direct impact of Ukraine’s membership in NATO on the defense capability of Europe cannot be overestimated. Investments in the defense of Ukraine are a direct investment in maintaining security in Europe. Russia’s war against Ukraine shows that nothing will stop the aggressor on the way to the goal — the Russian invaders will destroy everything in their path: residential buildings, infrastructure, transport communications. Preventing Russian aggression is much cheaper than fighting it and eliminating its consequences. Moreover, this will help save the European economy from the catastrophe caused by a possible war.
Thus, the Atlantic integration of Ukraine will not only strengthen the Eastern European flank, but will also positively affect the economy of the region, attracting investment in the real sector of the new member. In turn, Ukraine with strong economic growth prospects and a member of NATO can no longer be threatened by a weakened Russia.
Indecision, then, at Vilnius Summit 2023 is going to be very costly for NATO and the EU, both literally and figuratively. Ukraine, as part of the Alliance, will not only help to counter the Russian threat in the future, but will also reduce the costs of partners for reconstruction after the current war.