President of Belarus A. Lukashenko said that Russian nuclear weapons had been on the territory of the republic since October of this year. It was said deliberately: Lukashenko has long served as the Kremlin’s mouthpiece, and accordingly, his words are another example of nuclear blackmail from the Russian Federation towards the West. There is a logical explanation for this: Russia is bogged down in bloody battles in Ukraine and, contrary to the rhetoric of the Kremlin’s propagandists, cannot demonstrate any tangible results other than colossal losses.
In less than two years of war, the irretrievable losses of the Russian army amount to about 350 thousand people — similar statistics are provided by ISW analytical reports. Also, the Russians lost a lot of military equipment, combat aircraft and navy, especially in the second half of 2023. In particular, 20 % of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were destroyed in recent years four months. The culmination of this massacre was the attack on Novocherkassk large landing ship in the Feodosia dock on the morning of December 26. In addition, within 3 days the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 5 Russian fighters — these are truly significant losses, the replacement of which will deplete the sanctioned Russian budget. Therefore, Putin, through his proxies, is trying to blackmail Europe with a “nuclear big stick.”
In addition to nuclear blackmail, Putin uses a wide range of hybrid threats. For example, it provokes violence and unrest in the Balkans – the soft “underbelly” of Europe. The protests in Belgrade can be seen as an attempt by the Kremlin to interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign country. The KGB has carried out dozens of coups similarly in African and Asian countries, respectively, Putin has adopted tried-and-true Soviet methods and is trying to provoke bloodshed in Europe, which is so needed for the Kremlin. As a result, if Russian influence in the Balkans strengthens, we can expect a new source of tension in this traditionally “explosive” region. This entirely correlates with the Russian tactics of creating a “controlled chaos zone,” which in this case is designed to destabilize Europe and make it even more vulnerable to subsequent hybrid threats.
Russia is rapidly weakening, the continuation of the war will be a dead end for Russian troops. In this case, we can expect an increase in Russian terror and provocations. Putin understands that Russia has lost, but is not ready to retreat. Consequently, Europe must effectively counter Russian threats by comprehensively weakening the Kremlin. Russia have to find itself in complete international isolation, its economy and industry have to be destroyed under the influence of sanctions. In turn, the West must strengthen NATO’s eastern flank and do everything possible to ensure that Russia’s political presence in Europe disappears forever.