After last year’s brilliant success of Chinese diplomacy to reconcile centuries-old ethnic and religious rivals — Iran and Saudi Arabia, the world was full of expectations that Beijing could also take on another «Gordian knot» — Russia’s war against Ukraine.
But over time, hopes turned into disappointment. The «6-Point Consensus» initiative, supposedly developed together with Brazil, seemed too vague and unclear. At times, it felt more like an ‘initiative for the sake of initiative,’ an attempt by China to meet the expectations that prevailed in many countries of the Global South. Criticism of the Chinese plan was also voiced on both sides of the front.
But it seems that the situation is beginning to change dramatically. China is trying to take advantage of the current pre-election uncertainty in the United States and is already seriously taking up the end of the war in Ukraine, not even hypothetically allowing the peacemaker’s laurels to fall into the hands of the current or future White House administration.
It would seem that Beijing could apply its peacekeeping energy to another conflict, in particular in Africa, where security problems are not lacking. But Beijing’s choice was to go to war in Ukraine.
However, Beijing is well aware that it cannot solve these problems on its own. Іn Ukraine there is distrust of Beijing, which as is reasonably believed, is inclined to secretly play along with Russia in the war. But Russia, which has many excuses for its attempts to redraw the borders of former Soviet republics, Beijing’s reminders about the principles of sovereignty are met with irritation.
But now the Celestial Empire has a reliable recipe — the Global South. It is enough for Beijing to simply assemble a certain «majority coalition» (how to assemble, with a whip or a carrot, an another issue), in order to dictate on its behalf the conditions of peace to both sides of the conflict and to the whole world at the same time.
It seems that the first act of the Chinese play called «settlement of the war in Ukraine» is happening right now at the platform of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. On the sidelines of the event, Beijing needs to gather ministers or high representatives from the BRICS allies and loyal states of the Global South to form a «core group» that will support the now concrete, not vague, Chinese plan to freeze the war.
But the «core group» is still not the entire Global South, and not even a «majority coalition.» Further, according to the script of Chinese directors, the play implies the rapid expansion of this group at the expense of other states of Africa, Latin America and Asia or regional international organizations, such as the African Union. The bet will be on a kind of «pyramid effect,» when individual BRICS member states will be involved in supporting the Chinese initiative of the states that are guided by them.
But the greatest work will, of course, be done by China itself. Beijing’s set of ‘arguments’ could be very broad and applied individually to different countries of the Global South. But everyone knows the key argument — money, that is, to be more precise, economic dependence on China. This faultless argument got its name back in 2017, when Brahma Chellaney published his resonant article «China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy».
But back to our play. If China manages to muster enough support, at least internationally, to substantiate claims that 110 countries around the world have already backed the Brazilian-Chinese «6-Point Consensus» initiative, then the play will culminate. Scenery has been prepared for it — the October summit of BRICS leaders in Russian Kazan. It is there that Beijing expects to clearly propose «urbi et orbi» its specific plan for forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, but of course on behalf of the «majority from the South».
For the successful implementation of this plan, China would be very desirable, in addition to the Global South, to enlist the support of at least one authoritative European player. But it seems that in this plan, Beijing has already learned to conduct separate negotiations with individual European leaders who feel insecure in their positions within the country and take into account local business and the benefits of cooperation with the Celestial Empire.
And what of all this to the countries of Africa or other regions of the Global South. Like just another good deal with China, isn’t it? Chinese money (investments, loans, technology) in exchange for only Beijing’s political support in resolving the war, which is, for example, tens of thousands of kilometers from South Africa or Latin America.
But in fact, the threat lies in the imperceptible substitution of the UN and the entire global architecture, based on international law, by the Chinese arbitration, where Beijing will be guided solely by its pragmatic interests. Tomorrow, Chinese arbitration will neglect the principle of inviolability of borders in Africa enshrined in a special resolution of the Organization of African Unity of 1964, and only because it will meet the interests of Beijing’s next logistical megaproject. By pandering to Chinese political initiatives in Europe today, the Global South tomorrow risks not only economic but political Chinese hegemony at its home.
BORIS DEMASH